Here Comes the Cold.....What's in Store for this Winter?

Credit: AccuWeather - Two cold fronts will bring us chilly weather this week and into the future

It's that time of year again. The 70 degree days are becoming a distant memory and it's time to brush that dust off of your winter jacket. The thrills of the summer are leaving us behind and the bitter, winter weather is heading our way.

As a big skier myself, I love the winter, the cold weather, and plenty of snow, but these views are often the opposite of the majority of the general public. When most people see below freezing temperatures they just want to stay under their nice warm covers all day, not daring to step a toe out into the "bitter cold tundra."

This week marks the beginning of the shift in the weather in Pennsylvania from abnormally above-average temperatures that we've experienced throughout the majority of September and October to much cooler and more seasonable temperatures that we should be experiencing around this time of the year. The lovers of the warmer weather have been spoiled and lured over a trap door by the temperatures ever since the beginning of the semester in mid-August. But now Mother Nature has finally caught up and she's making up for lost time by dropping our temperatures into the mid-50's for highs and upper 30's for overnight lows, taking many people by surprise if they weren't following the weather forecasts.

Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center - The Northeast has been six to nine degrees above the normal temperatures for this time of the year throughout the month of October

Dominant ridges of high pressure, associated with sinking air and clear skies, had dominated our region for the majority of October leaving us with beautiful sunny skies and a time period where we didn't see rain for weeks. But we were greeted with a "fall reality check" this week when a sharp cold front passed through Pennsylvania Monday night and throughout the day on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning we were greeted with temperatures in the upper 30's for the first time in awhile and highs not even reaching the 50 degrees mark in the central PA area.

In September and October, we had one or two blasts of cooler air but they didn't stick around for too long. I'm confident that this cooler, more seasonable weather that we're just beginning to experience will stick around for the foreseeable future, especially because of a reinforcing shot of cold air this weekend. We should expect another significant rainfall on Saturday night and into Sunday, possibly dumping more than 2 inches of rain in our area, as a cold front passes through. This will help to keep our temperatures around the low 50's for highs and upper 30's for lows. With these colder temperatures, the chance for frosts increases as we could possibly see lows below 32 degrees soon enough.

Credit: AccuWeather - Snow will fall for the first time in Minnesota and Wisconsin later this week

These blasts of colder air are also creating some snow in portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin heading into this weekend. We won't see snowflakes in our area in the next week or so, but if these colder temperatures continue to stick around, our first snow will come sooner rather than later.

Along with the cooler temperatures becoming more prevalent around this time of year, this is typically when we start to see forecasts for the upcoming winter coming out. Forecasting a whole season ahead is not an easy task and often times the forecasts aren't too reliable, but they can give us a good baseline and something that we can look ahead to. Winter forecasts are comprised of two maps, the first of which is a temperature map showing specific areas of the United States that are forecasted to be above or below average temperatures for the winter months. The other map is a precipitation outlook displaying if it will be wetter or drier than average for specific portions of the U.S. based on the forecasts.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Based on these maps, it appears that central Pennsylvania has a slight chance of having a warmer and wetter than average winter. Many other sources, such as AccuWeather and The Weather Channel, release maps similar to these every year with each source having a map that is slightly different than the others. The reason for many of the maps showing this general type of a pattern is due to the La Niña that's forming in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Current Sea Surface Temperatures - blue colors are colder waters, red and orange colors are warmer waters. You can see the clear line of colder temperatures off the coast of northern South America which denotes a La Niña.

There's a good chance that a La Niña will form this winter, where sea surface temperatures are colder than average off to the west of South America, and by using data from past La Niña's meteorologists have come up with the current forecasts for this winter. However, I wouldn't take these forecasts to heart as something that will definitely happen; we'll just have to wait and see what Mother Nature brings us.

Are you hoping for the slightly wetter and warmer winter that's currently being predicted for Pennsylvania or would you rather have a drier and cooler winter?