March is the New February

We had our taste of spring in February. Turns out Mother Nature was just teasing us.

Welcome back to winter. I don't think anyone is excited to see sub-freezing temperatures on a daily basis throughout all of March...not to mention four nor'easters. Meteorology professor Steve Seman can confirm the remarkable temperature trend that's happening so late in the winter season. 

#StateCollege just snapped a remarkable 26-day stretch with minimum temperatures < 32º. I can only find 3 longer streaks that ended this late in the season:

33 days in 1989 (2/23-3/27)
38 days in 1984 (2/26-4/3)
46 days in 1960 (2/12-3/28)#pawx

— Steve Seman (@SteveSeman) March 28, 2018

Graphic showing how much warmer March should be than February. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

Having a March that's colder than the preceding February is fairly uncommon for most of the northeastern United States. First, let's take a look at the numbers and the maps. March, on average, is between eight to ten degrees warmer than February usually is for most of Pennsylvania and New England. This temperature difference decreases as you move south, with places like Florida only seeing a two to four-degree increase from average February temperatures to average March temperatures. Most years this temperature difference is positive - that is, March is warmer than February. However, you occasionally get the years with an unseasonably mild February followed by an unseasonably cool March causing these temperature differences to be negative.

Temperature departures for the month of February in the northeast. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

For the northeastern United States, the entire month of February was between four and eight degrees above what it should have been for the month of February. This can be seen by the reds and oranges in the above graphic of departure from normal temperatures.

Temperature departures for the month of March so far for the Northeast. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

When you flip the calendar over to March, however, temperatures have been between two and eight degrees below average for a normal March, with especially colder temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic states. This can be seen with the darker greens, blues, and purples in the above graphic of departure from normal temperatures.

Temperature differences from February to March for the state of PA for 2018. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

When the temperature differences from February to March are placed throughout Pennsylvania, it's clear to see that instead of an eight to ten-degree positive increase in temperatures from February to March, we have had a three to a six-degree decrease in average temperatures from February to March. Places south of Pennsylvania, such as North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, have seen even more negative temperature differences. Some locations experienced a March that was seven or eight degrees colder than February was, which is pretty incredible.

Eastern U.S. temperature differences from February to March for 2018. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

Even though this has happened the past two years - March was colder than February in 2017 for Pennsylvania as well - this is not a very common trend. It's only happened six times since 1900 for Pennsylvania: 1915, 1932, 1960, 1984, 2017, and now 2018. When you move further south, to Flordia for example, a colder March than February has happened eleven different years since 1900, making it less uncommon due to the lower temperature difference from February to March that usually happens down there. 

Why did this happen in two consecutive years for the first time since 1900? We don't really know. My first guess would be something to do with La Niña, which we've been under "mild" versions of for the past couple of years. La Niña winters are usually wetter and warmer for the eastern United States, which would have made a lot of sense for February - above normal temperatures and much more precipitation than usual. However, March 2018 broke this rule and the rule to be warmer than February. 

So, what should our high temperature be for this time of year? Right around 52 degrees here in State College for the end of March. We'll see temperatures around 52 degrees on Thursday through Saturday to end this week, which will feel like a heat wave compared to what we've been experiencing. 

But I've got bad news. The warmth will not stick around. Back to the mid-to-lower 40's for highs at the end of next week and possibly continuing throughout the first half of April. Spring is unfortunately still on the back burner, giving us a few teases but not sticking around for good yet.

Looking like April will start off colder than average. Credit: AccuWeather

4th March Nor'easter Slams the Northeast on the First Day of Spring

I describe the official Campus Weather Service snowfall map during my video Tuesday morning

Happy Spring! The season filled with blooming flowers, warmer temperatures, and....snow! Apparently, Mother Nature doesn't care when the vernal equinox is as the northeast got hammered with its 4th nor'easter of March over the past couple of days. Penn State received about 4-5 inches from the storm, but places just south of State College and towards the eastern half of Pennsylvania saw snow totals get close to a foot. Many people are getting sick of all this snow and just want some spring-like temperatures, so I'll let you know if we have any more snow in the forecast later in this blog post.

There were two main things that made this storm interesting to forecast for and monitor as it impacted the northeast. First, this storm was very hard to create a forecast for a few days out, especially for State College, which was looking like it would be right on the fringe of the snow. Models were all over the place with some models forecasting over a foot here in Happy Valley a few days before the storm and others barely giving us an inch.

A typical setup for a nor'easter - Credit: The Weather Channel

The previous nor'easters that have impacted the northeast United States have been much more of traditional setup for a nor'easter, where the system develops off the coast of the United States and then moves up the coast towards New England. However, this system made its way across the country, west to east, and then almost stalled in the mid-Atlantic where it received an injection of moisture from the south and then redeveloped off the coast of Delaware before it moved northeast, towards New England. This meant that Pennsylvania had the possibility of seeing snow from when the system was traversing across the country and even when it was stalled before it would move onto impact Southern New England.

The problem was the dry air just to the north of us. This dry air kept the snow to the south of us for the entirety of the day on Tuesday in State College, which left many meteorologists scrambling to adjust their snowfall forecast maps and lower the amounts that they were expecting. However, when many of us woke up on Wednesday morning, the snow had finally made it into Happy Valley and it was coming down at a moderate clip.

Graphic about different sun angles in different seasons - Credit: Home in the Earth.com

The second impressive thing about this storm was that for late-March it's usually difficult to see accumulations of any snow during the daytime, in cities especially. The spring sun angle is much higher in the sky than during the winter, which warms the ground and the lower atmosphere faster. In order to overcome this, it must snow at a heavier rate to accumulate during the daytime, which it did - with heavy snow coming down especially during the day on Wednesday reducing visibilities to less than a mile in some locations and creating treacherous travel conditions. For instance, some impressive 5-inch-per-hour snowfall rates were reported on Long Island with some gusty winds causing for quick snow accumulations and very poor travel conditions.

LOW VISIBILITY = DANGEROUS TRAVEL
Avoid travel if possible, especially in southern and southeastern parts of the state. Heavier snowfall leads to lower visibility and difficult travel conditions. Stay safe! #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/1a7Fh8x3r8

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) March 21, 2018

Many places, such as Philadelphia and New York, also saw the snow totals from this system break their old records for the most amount of snow that's fallen on this date in history. Washington D.C. doubled their yearly snow total after they picked up around 4 inches from this storm. The graphic below highlights just how rare having a big snowstorm is in the second half of March for New York City.

Graphic showing the rarity of large snow events late in March - Credit: AccuWeather

Two people have also died in accidents from trying to travel in this nor'easter and nearly 50,000 are without power due to this storm (for many this isn't the first time that they've lost power in the month of March). Over 4,000 flights were canceled on Wednesday and travel headaches could be seen from Massachusetts all the way down to Washington D.C.

What conditions are looking like for Thursday - Credit: AccuWeather

It will remain cold for the rest of this week with the freeze potential on Thursday morning from this storm as the places that saw some of the snow melt during the day on Wednesday will most likely see this refreeze overnight as black ice.

The Alberta clipper stom just missing PA to the south and west over the weekend - Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The good news is that the sun will be out by this weekend and we'll be missing out on the snow for an Alberta clipper system that will pass just to the south of Pennsylvania. By the time we get into early next week temperatures should begin to gradually increase and we could hit 50! by the time we get to Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees that this will stick around, but I'm sure many people are just happy to hear that there's no more snow in the forecast for the next 7 days. Stay warm!

March Madness of Nor'easters: Winter Isn't Going Away Easily

Three powerful nor'easters made for an insane March in the Northeast. pic.twitter.com/oAmSZiAWTC

— Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) March 14, 2018

Not one. Not two. But THREE outstanding nor'easters have struck the mid-Atlantic and the northeast over the past two weeks. Let's do a quick recap:

1. The first nor'easter impacted places from central Pennsylvania all the way out to Cape Cod on Friday, March 2. The most snow fell in the northeast corner of Pennsylvania (including the Poconos) and especially in the Catskills of New York. Additionally, travel was hindered for some students trying to head home for spring break on Friday afternoon and evening as well. The winds were very, very strong with this system causing coastal flooding, especially in Massachusetts, since the storm also coincided with a full moon making tides even higher than they normally are. The wind field of this storm was massive and mirrored Hurricane Sandy's wind map with places as far south as North Carolina feeling the wind gusts.

Tomorrows storm (left) vs Hurricane Sandy (right) – No, this will not be a Sandy repeat, but this shows you the unbelievable extent of the wind field and gusts we'll be dealing with. The entire east coast likely to feel effects. pic.twitter.com/v2vjsE8xS9

— WeatherOptics (@weatheroptics) March 1, 2018

2. The second nor'easter dumped plenty of snow from Philadelphia to all over New England on Wednesday, March 7. Some of the snowfall rates were insane with this storm system as it strengthed off the coast in the North Atlantic and bands of heavy snow set up in certain spots. One report from western Massachusetts claimed they had gotten 18 inches of snow in a mere 3 hours (6" per hour snowfall rates!!). Philadelphia also got a decent amount of snow with a few heavy bands of snow setting up in Eastern PA. Widespread power outages and travel delays/accidents were again caused by this storm system.

Still a long way to go with this storm. Several hours of heavy snow expected from Philly to New York City this afternoon and evening. #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/dMemBUPvMH

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) March 7, 2018

3. The third (and maybe not final) nor'easter of March caused everyone to get in on the snow - even all the way out in Cape Cod and along Long Island - due to the cold air that was already in place and further east track of the storm. This storm impacted millions of people in the Northeast on Tuesday, March 13. Some of the highest snow totals were from around Worcester, MA and in Western Massachusets, where over two feet of snow fell! Places in Eastern New England also saw blizzard conditions with some wind gusts as high as hurricane-force winds in some locations. Boston, MA, Worcester, MA, and Providence, RI all broke daily snowfall records which were previously set during the Blizzard of 1993. This was one of the nor'easters that achieved bombogenesis status, where there was at least a 27 millibar drop in pressure over 24 hours as it strengthened over the waters of the Atlantic. Since the center of low pressure of this system was further off the coast of New England, Pennsylvania didn't pick up as much snow as with the previous two nor'easters, with only the extreme eastern part of the state picking up an inch or two.

Snow totals across New England from the third, and most recent, nor'easter. Credit: National Weather Service

A high-resolution satellite image of the third nor'easter of March. Credit: Accuweather/NOAA 

Snow depths across the northeast after the trio of nor'easters. Some places have over 20 inches of snow on the ground. Credit: NOAA/NWS

Now maybe you're thinking, the first day of spring is less than a week away (March 20), so warmer temperatures and less snow has to be on the way, right? Well, another storm is on the horizon that might impact the northeast in the first half of next week. We will have to monitor it closely as we get closer to early next week, but it could miss the northeast to the south, bring us a wintry mix, or develop into another potent nor'easter. But regardless of what happens with this storm system, the cold temperatures are looking like they'll stick around until at least the end of March.

Both the 6-10 day outlook and the 8-14 day temperature outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center at the National Weather Service indicate temperatures to be below average - and they're very confident in this forecast (70% probability). So keep out that winter jacket for a few more weeks and blame the groundhog for these cold temperatures for seeing his shadow back in February!

CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA