Can the Weather Just Decide What it Wants to Do?

Temperature graph for the month of January in State College, lighter lines are the average temperatures for this time of year. Credit: AccuWeather

Welcome to the Northeast. The weather can't seem to make up its mind over these past couple of weeks, fluctuating from being bitterly cold to being mild and above average. It's like mother nature got confused that we were still in winter. Just last week we got a few inches of snow on Tuesday, but it was gone by the weekend after warmer temperatures and rain washed it away. And I'm sure no one forgets the harsh cold temperatures that we experienced at the end of December and beginning of January (and, of course, the #BombCyclone). What causes these fluctuations in temperatures and keeps us all on our toes as to what we need to wear each day?

Strong low-pressure systems are the main culprit, each one having a warm front ahead of it that brings in a southerly flow and causes temperatures to rise well above average. But then the cold front hits, dropping temperatures like a rock and shifting winds to be out of the northwest. I'm sure many of us remember the drastic change in temperature over a few hours earlier this month on Friday, January 12. One hour it was above 60 degrees and then before you knew it the temperature was below freezing. As long as a high pressure is over us, temperatures will remain chilly or seasonable until the next low-pressure system comes through starting the cycle again.

Temperatures over the past 14 days showing the warming trend. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

It should be noted that the past fourteen days of January have been around two degrees above average in the central Pennsylvania area, but much warmer than average in portions of New England (orange, yellow, and red signify above average temperatures in the map above). In case you were wondering, the average high temperature for this time of year in State College is around 35 degrees and the average low is at 19 degrees.

So these next couple of days will be fairly seasonable and average for this time of year before temperatures warm up again for the weekend into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This is, of course, accompanied by a weak cold front with some rain, which will drop out temperatures back down, a little further this time. The early portion of next week will be fairly chilly, with temperatures possibly not getting above freezing during a couple of those days. But don't worry, this cold snap will again be short lived as we get back up into the upper 40s by the end of the week and more rain possible. So fasten your seatbelts and get ready to ride the Northeast temperature roller coaster over these next couple of weeks.

The milder temperatures associated with the weak cold front that will impact PA over the weekend. Credit: Accuweather.

We should also keep in mind that we are in a La Niña winter, and forecasts at the beginning of this winter were for us to have slightly above average temperatures throughout the winter. The prolonged periods of cold earlier this winter have kept our winter average for temperature below average, but there is still plenty of time left for that to change.

Let's take a look at a longer range forecast of temperatures on the maps below issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. From January 30 to February 3, forecasters are fairly confident that temperatures will be above average. However, in the period from February 1-7, temperatures are forecasted to return to average, and some forecasters are saying that it may get to be below average during the early part of February with arctic air invading the Midweat and Northeast.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Credit: NOAA

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Credit: NOAA

Arctic air might make its way into the U.S. during the second week of February. Credit: AccuWeather.

However, these forecasts are a few weeks out and we should wait a few more days before confirming that these temperature trends will indeed happen. What we can be for sure is that it felt like April instead of January a few days ago, but now the winter jacket is needed once again over these past couple of days. Stay updated to see how these temperature patterns will actually play out and to see when more storms are on our way.

It looks more like April than January in PA with dark clouds and no snow on the ground. Credit: J.P. Tracey