Get Ready for Six More Weeks of Winter: Frigid February Ahead

Bundle up for a chilly month of February ahead of us. Even Punxsutawney Phil will probably agree, as he will most likely see his shadow on Friday morning "signaling" six more weeks of winter. But even without Phil's help, meteorologists are fairly confident that the month of February will be a cold one, and possibly even a snowy one.

The famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil in 2016 - Credit: NJ.com

After a roller coaster of temperatures to wrap up the first month of 2018, it appears that at the turn of the calendar to the shortest month of the year, colder than average temperatures will settle in and dominate the eastern portion of the country, possibly throughout the entire month. This weather pattern will also set up the jet stream in the right configuration to allow for some winter storms to impact the Northeast, maybe even as soon as this weekend.

We've been lured into somewhat of a false sense of security with a relatively mild second half of January. The map below shows that temperatures in the northeast ranged from two to six degrees above what they should be for this time of year from mid-January until now.

Temperature departures for the second half of January - Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

But all of this will change within the next couple of days as the jet stream will take a dive in the eastern half of the United States, ushering in cold, Arctic air and plunging temperatures to below average. The average high for State College for this time of year is 32 degrees with the average low being around 18 degrees. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is fairly confident that temperatures will be below average all the way into the middle of February, as illustrated by the maps below (blue indicates below average temperatures with the darker shades signifying a higher confidence in that forecast).

6-10 Day Temp. Forecast - Credit: Pivotal Weather

8-14 Day Temp. Forecast - Credit: Pivotal Weather

But how cold will it get? High temperatures in State College on Friday are going to struggle to hit twenty degrees with lows dropping into the teens most nights. But something else stands out in this new weather pattern: the potential for a big snowstorm (or two). While everyone is watching the Super Bowl indoors on Sunday night, snow may be falling outside across the Northeast. Both the American and European models suggest a large system developing over the weekend and moving over the Pennsylvania area throughout the afternoon and evening portions of Sunday. The exact track of the storm will determine who will receive rain, who will get snow, and who could see a wintry mix. The storm also isn't expected to get too intense and it will move rather quickly up the coast, preventing it from becoming a blockbuster Northeast snowstorm.

Widespread rain and snow will cover much of the Northeast Sunday night - Credit: The Weather Channel

No official forecasts are out for the potential snow totals, but my first estimate would be around two to four inches of snow in central Pennsylvania from this system. However, recent model runs have suggested that the center of the low-pressure will track closer to the coast meaning that the rain would spread further inland and dampen the snow totals. Keep updated with your weather forecasts as we get closer to Sunday to see if this storm will bring central Pennsylvania some snow. One thing does appear to be fairly certain though: if snow does fall on Sunday, it will stick around for a while as cold temperatures throughout February will limit any melting.

Comment below if you like the cold weather and increased chances of snow, or if you just want winter to be over and can't stand seeing any more snow or cold temperatures.