Well That Was an Interesting Storm... My Opinion on Penn State's Decisions

There was a noticeable buzz in Weather Center on the sixth floor of the Walker Building Tuesday evening. Whether you want to call us weather weenies or sky nerds, we were getting excited about the winter storm that was going to impact the Northeast during the day on Wednesday. Many of us comparing five different weather models fascinated by what the snowfall rates could be, others trying to predict what the snow totals were going to be for State College, and some placing bets on if Penn State would cancel classes.

Updated Snow and Ice Forecast: A period of heavy snow followed by sleet and freezing rain is likely during the day tomorrow. Use caution if traveling as conditions will rapidly deteriorate early morning. @penn_state #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/q033VRIlpM

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) February 6, 2018

In my opinion, this was the type of storm that's the hardest for meteorologists to predict. Winter weather is hard enough - everyone wants to know exactly how much snow they'll get. Let me tell you something. It's not that simple. If a heavier snow band happens to develop directly over a specific area, they'll probably see a localized accumulation that's much more than the surrounding areas.

And if you add warm air (that's above freezing) to the mix, like we had in this situation, a million other scenarios arise. Who's going to see a mixed precipitation? Will it be freezing rain or sleet (yes, there is a difference)? When will specific areas transition from snow to ice to rain? How will this dampen snow totals? It's a forecaster's nightmare (but, still kind of fun since I love the weather).

How different temperatures at different layers of the atmosphere impact the precipitation type. Credit: Mesonet

We were left looking at atmospheric soundings at different forecast hours to see where in the upper atmosphere and when it would become above freezing and possibly transition over to freezing rain or sleet at that time. We were comparing old model runs to newer model runs to see if they were trending warmer or colder and trying to see when that warm nose would poke through and deliver us some frozen precipitation. What we did know was that this was going to be a heavy hitter. Snowfall rates from 5am to 10am were looking to be at or over one inch per hour and with temperatures near 32 degrees, snowflakes were going to be rather large, helping the snow to pile up quickly. But then, after transitioning over to sleet/freezing rain/rain, it was appearing that the system might be moving out of our area by 1 or 2 pm.

Happy Snow Day, Penn State! pic.twitter.com/YdLRTP42z7

— Onward State (@OnwardState) February 7, 2018

I definitely would not have wanted to be the Penn State staff in this situation. Whether you decide to cancel classes or not, people would have disagreed with your decision (it's like a politician - you can never please everyone). Tuesday night they decided to cancel classes until 10am. That was a step in the right direction, but I also thought that that was when the heavy snow would be transitioning over to sleet, causing a massive travel headache. Then, Wednesday morning I woke up to the (wonderful) sight that classes were canceled until 5pm. I was honestly shocked that the university did this, but I happily went back to bed.

When I went out for lunch around 1pm, there were only about 3 inches of snow on the ground, a light freezing rain falling from the sky, and some minor slush on the sidewalks. I do have to give props to OPP - they were out clearing all the sidewalks, and doing a good job with them as well. We did switch back over to snow for a few flurries, but the overall precipitation was less than anticipated. I honestly think that Penn State should have just canceled classes until 12 or 1 pm (I guess hindsight is 20/20). Especially hearing all the stories on Tuesday of how rarely Penn State cancels classes (that it takes upwards of a foot or two of snow before they've canceled in the past), I was shocked to hear their actual decision. I wonder if the day last year when they didn't cancel classes and people were slipping on ice all day had an impact on their decision...

BONUS: AccuWeather just released their Spring 2018 preliminary forecast, which puts Pennsylvania and the entire Northeast in the category of chilly temperatures and the possibility of more mixed rain and snow events. This forecast of a slow transition to mild weather is not a welcome sight for many of you warm weather lovers, but we'll have to wait and see how it actually plays out over the next several months.

Credit: AccuWeather