We've Got a Very Interesting Situation on Our Hands...

As I was sitting in the Weather Center on the sixth floor of the Walker Building on Tuesday afternoon as I usually do, some intriguing and exciting news was being talked about. We might get a snowstorm this weekend. Yes, you heard that correctly. I know, it caught most of us meteorologists off guard too. All of a sudden the European model showed a large swath of snow moving over Pennsylvania Saturday evening and throughout Saturday night in its latest run. If you went back to the previous model run, nothing.

The European Model showing moderate snow over the Northeast throughout Saturday night. Credit: weather.us

Very strange, but interesting at the same time. As good meteorologists, we don't rely just on one model but instead we look at a variety of different models to ensure that there's some consensus. And sure enough, a few other models, like the Canadian and the North American Models, were showing this same area of snow moving its way through the Commonwealth and the Northeast Saturday night. However, others, such as the GFS, were predicting that the storm would track south of Pennsylvania, leaving us dry and clear for the weekend.

The GFS model showing the area of rain moving south of Pennsylvania and the Northeast. Credit: Tropical Tidbits

I think that this is incredible and a testament to the fact that our weather changes very rapidly. Having a situation that varies slightly at the beginning can drastically change the outcome. That's basically the entire concept of numerical weather prediction. Varying the initial conditions ever so slightly, but over time those small variations create large differences in the end result. When you average all of these varying results together you can get a pretty accurate forecast.

The fact of the matter is that this system practically came out of the blue. Forecasts were calling for a beautiful weekend filled with sunshine and no chance of precipitation as recently as Tuesday morning. Heck, I even flat out said it was going to be a gorgeous weekend in my video for the Campus Weather Service on Tuesday morning. Then as we went throughout the day on Tuesday, the possibility of getting snow on Saturday night was increasing by the hour. By the end of the day the National Weather Service and other general forecasting websites, such as Accuweather and The Weather Channel, were hinting at the possibility of some snow this weekend.

The Weather Channel's forecast for Saturday night for the Northeast. Credit: The Weather Channel

There are a few major reasons why it's so important to monitor this storm for this weekend. First, since it's THON Weekend here at Penn State, students and visitors will be traveling both from near and far to the Bryce Jordan Center throughout the weekend. Any accumulating snow will create a lot of headaches and traffic delays for everyone trying to make it to State College for this much anticipated weekend. Secondly, it's also President's Weekend which means that a lot of people will be traveling on the roads and highways throughout this weekend, especially in the Northeast to go skiing. If this system dumps some snow throughout the Northeast, people who were planning on traveling on Saturday night or Sunday morning might have a hard time doing so with snow covered roads and highways.

In other words, if this snowstorm actually happens, the timing could not have been worse and the impacts will surely be felt from Pennsylvania up to Maine. This is, unfortunately, one of those "wait and see" kind of storms, where we won't know the exact track and impacts from the storm until one or two days ahead of time.

AccuWeather's two scenarios of the track of the storm. Either way, this is not shaping up to be a blockbuster storm - accumulations should only be a few inches. Credit: AccuWeather

BONUS: You enjoying the warm temperatures? Good news. They're going to stick around for a little while. We will reach close to 60 degrees today and then we will have a couple of other chances to reach the 60-degree mark next week. However, keep your umbrellas and rain jackets handy because these mild temperatures are going to bring with them plenty of rain opportunities.

The Climate Prediction Center's temperature forecast for the middle to end of February. Credit: The Weather Channel

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's forecast is fairly confident that the entire eastern half of the country will experience above-average temperatures as we move through the next ten days. But what's next? Early long-range forecasts for the beginning of March are indicating a cooler than average start to the third month of the year, but we'll have to wait and see. This year might be shaping up to be a repeat of last winter: mild and wet February followed by a cold and snowy March.