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| Very strong winds and a mixture of snow and rain will blanket the northeast later this week. Credit: AccuWeather |
It may feel as if spring has already arrived here in central Pennsylvania. We've experienced several days throughout the second half of February with temperatures over the 60-degree mark, even with a couple of record-setting days last week when we reached over 70 degrees! Shorts and t-shirts have been broken out and students are out playing frisbee and football on the HUB Lawn. Even with the copious amounts of rain throughout the second half of February (we actually broke our record for rainfall for the month of February here in State College), I'm sure many people have enjoyed the recent warmer temperatures after a frigid start to the winter. As seen in the graphic below, temperatures over the past seven days have been eight to twenty degrees above average throughout the northeast! So much for the groundhog's prediction of six more weeks of winter...
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| Temperatures have been well above average throughout the last 7 days of February. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center. |
...but not so fast. Winter has not had its last laugh just yet. A strong nor'easter is expected to impact the northeast from Thursday through Saturday this week with strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain, and areas of heavy snow all expected. This will be a very complex system, to say the least.
For central Pennsylvania, where students will be having their last couple days of classes before spring break begins, this will be a mostly rain and wind event with a few snow showers possibly mixing in on Friday. The rain will move into our area around midday on Thursday and at some points throughout the afternoon and into the evening, it could be moderate to heavy rain. The rain will taper off by around midnight on Thursday night with winds then shifting to be out of the northwest, ushering in colder air and the possibility for a few snow showers throughout central and western Pennsylvania.
However, the impacts from this system will be much worse throughout New York state, across New England, and especially along the Atlantic coastline. When the center of low pressure moves off of the coast of New England, very strong winds will be blowing directly on-shore (especially in Eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Southern Maine) pushing the ocean water on-shore and causing coastal flooding and beach erosion. As seen in the graphic below, wind gusts could reach up to 80 miles per hour in some locations due to the strengthening of this nor'easter off the coast. To make matters even worse, a full moon occurs on Thursday night which increases the height of the tides, further contributing to the coastal flooding that is bound to happen. These high winds will also most likely be to blame for many airport delays throughout the northeast over the next few days, as well as causing many power outages to occur.
For central Pennsylvania, where students will be having their last couple days of classes before spring break begins, this will be a mostly rain and wind event with a few snow showers possibly mixing in on Friday. The rain will move into our area around midday on Thursday and at some points throughout the afternoon and into the evening, it could be moderate to heavy rain. The rain will taper off by around midnight on Thursday night with winds then shifting to be out of the northwest, ushering in colder air and the possibility for a few snow showers throughout central and western Pennsylvania.
However, the impacts from this system will be much worse throughout New York state, across New England, and especially along the Atlantic coastline. When the center of low pressure moves off of the coast of New England, very strong winds will be blowing directly on-shore (especially in Eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Southern Maine) pushing the ocean water on-shore and causing coastal flooding and beach erosion. As seen in the graphic below, wind gusts could reach up to 80 miles per hour in some locations due to the strengthening of this nor'easter off the coast. To make matters even worse, a full moon occurs on Thursday night which increases the height of the tides, further contributing to the coastal flooding that is bound to happen. These high winds will also most likely be to blame for many airport delays throughout the northeast over the next few days, as well as causing many power outages to occur.
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| Peak wind gust forecast for Thursday night through Friday night causing many impacts. Credit: Accuweather |
Three high tides of concern from Fri late AM through Sat early PM in #Boston. Tide levels may reach those only exceeded by Winter Storm Grayson (Jan. 2018) and the Blizzard of '78. https://t.co/xCl2Y0Eon4 pic.twitter.com/gbYtzXVBxV— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) February 28, 2018
Not only do we have to worry about the winds and the coastal flooding, but keeping track of where the snow will fall is also vitally important. Due to the intensity of this system, it will usher in enough cold air from Canada in order to change the rain over to heavy, wet snow in some places. The places that will see the most snow are the Catskills of New York as well as the western part of New York and far northeastern Pennsylvania. The majority of this snow will fall throughout the day on Friday, causing many traffic headaches for anyone traveling to the north or east of State College.
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| AccuWeather's snowfall forecast - this will change depending on which model you wish to believe. Credit: AccuWeather |
After this strong and complex system moves out of the area, temperatures are going to turn much cooler than they have been. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts temperatures to be around average to slightly below average as we move throughout the first half of March. This means temperatures sticking around the low to mid-40s for highs and mid to upper 20s for lows (a far cry from the 60s and 70s we saw in the second half of February).
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| Colder and more seasonable temperatures are expected to return as we move through the beginning of March. Credit: Pivotal Weather |
If you want more details on this storm system and how the weekend is expected to be, check out my Centre County Report forecast video from Wednesday morning:
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