A Taste of Spring This Weekend

For the first time since February, we will reach the 70 degree mark here in State College! Very exciting news for a lot of people waiting for spring, as we've been mired in this unseasonably chilly pattern for the past six weeks or so. Almost every morning when you woke up over the past couple of days this week, it seemed like it was snowing. Granted it was pretty light for the most part and hardly stuck to any surfaces, however, it was still a reminder that winter wasn't going away just yet.

When the groundhog told us we would have six more weeks of winter, I would have rather gotten it over with starting at the beginning of February, not waiting a month with unseasonably mild temperatures and then paying the price in the middle of April. But I wouldn't get too excited about this weekend's warm up. A strong cold front will move across the country Saturday night and into Sunday, dropping temperatures down pretty significantly, back to feeling like winter. So, unfortunately, don't put away that winter jacket just yet.

Our late week warmup can be attributed to a warm front making its way through the state - Credit: AccuWeather

Let's take a closer look as to what's causing this warm up to finally occur. A warm front, that is a boundary between a colder and a warmer air mass that brings in warmer air, will move through Pennsylvania on Thursday accompanied by a few morning showers. Temperatures on Thursday will creep up into the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday are for sure the picks of the week, with sunshine present on both days and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Shorts and t-shirts will probably be able to be broken out for these couple of days as well. It will reach above 80 degrees in Washington D.C. and places further to our south, which will be the warmest temperatures they've experienced in over six months (since the beginning of October)!

The warmth will struggle to go extremely far north, with portions of northern New York, Vermont, and Maine still stuck in the 30s and 40s for this weekend. As a massive and strong cold front makes its way across the country throughout the end of the week, the warm air mass will keep us in the warm sector and out of the heaviest of precipitation on Sunday, although it will be cloudy.

The precipitation shield from this storm system will stay at bay for Sunday in PA, only a few showers expected on Sunday with snow expected further north where the colder temperatures remain - Credit: AccuWeather

Meteorologists call this type of system a back-door cold front because it will move south from New England towards the Mid-Atlantic instead of the typical west to east moving cold front. This will cause a pretty significant temperature gradient between the warmer air to the south and the colder air to the north as the below average temperatures filter back into State College. It won't be as cold as it was throughout March, however, it will feel like a temperature roller coaster going from winter this week, to spring this weekend, and then back to winter for the beginning of next week.

Other Notes: Just how cold has the first ten days of April been? Looking at the map below, the white numbers indicate how much warmer the first ten days of April are, on average, compared to the last ten days of February. These differences range from 13 to 15 degrees warmer in April. Well, this year it has been drastically different. The blue temperatures at each reporting station indicate what the difference in temperatures has been for 2018. At all stations, the first ten days of April have been significantly colder than the last ten days of February were. Pretty amazing.

During a WeatherWorld segment that compares February temperatures to April temperatures - Credit: Dr. Nese

Here's how much below average our temperatures have been in the Northeast over the first ten days of the month. All of Pennsylvania has had temperatures six to nine degrees below normal so far in April.

Temperature departures for the first part of April this year - Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

In case you're wondering when the latest snowfall was here in State College, that happened on May 9, 1923, so getting another dose of measurable snowfall is not out of the question yet, especially with the weather we've been having so far this year. Get out and enjoy the warm temperatures this weekend while they last.

Three More Chances of Snow Before Spring Finally Arrives

It's April...and it's snowing.

I'm sure "April" and "snow" are not two words that you want to hear in the same sentence, but that's what we've seen here in Happy Valley over the past couple of days and should continue to see over the next week. Fortunately, the "end" is in sight for these cold temperatures and snow chances - by the end of next week we should have temperatures returning to where they should be for this time of the year.

Looking out of the Walker Building on Monday morning at the beautiful snow covered trees

Waking up on Monday morning to start your work or school week, I'm sure that seeing 4.5 inches of snow on the ground was not expected for most (unless you're a weather weenie and saw this coming a few days ahead of time). Monday morning's snowstorm was pretty to look at, however. People were snapping pictures on their way to class as the wet, heavy snow stuck to tree branches and grassy surfaces, making Happy Valley look like a winter wonderland again. Even though more than 4 inches was on the ground at the start of the day, all of it was practically gone by the time that the sun set on Monday evening - above freezing temperatures and a higher April sun angle will do that.

Just how unusual was it for this amount of snow this late in the season? It broke the record for the most snowfall ever recorded on April 2nd in State College and was a greater amount than the total amount of snow that has fallen over the past ten Aprils combined. Additionally, it was the biggest April snowfall in State College since 1982.

Officially 4.5" at the PSU COOP site this morning. A daily record, and more snow than has fallen in the last 10 Aprils combined (Total 2008-2017 = 1.9") #pawx

— Steve Seman (@SteveSeman) April 2, 2018

The #snow total of 4.5" at the PSU Co-op site is the biggest April calendar day snowfall since 1982, and the first 4" or greater April snowfall since 1993 #pawx #ctpwx

— Weather World (@WeatherWorldPSU) April 2, 2018

The thing that may be even more surprising is that we could add to our 2018 April snow total over the next several days. Arctic air will linger in the Northeast until the middle of next week setting the stage for additional snowfall, especially over this weekend.

Expect travel delays to occur with these systems as well as delays for baseball (we already saw both the Yankees and Mets have a "snow out" on Monday, and the Nationals might have to do the same this weekend). Keep in mind that this comes right after we saw a few flashes of lightning and claps of thunder in central Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, so definitely some bizarre spring weather happening right now.

The first snow threat moves through quickly Thursday night into Friday putting down a quick coating to an inch of snow in most places. Again, this will be a wet and slushy snow and will melt by the end of the day on Friday. Nonetheless, it will be a nuisance for travel and a quick reminder that winter is still here.

The snow associated with a warm front will bring small snow accumulations to the northeast - Credit: Weather Optics

The second, and most significant, snow threat comes on this Saturday. Models currently have the majority of this storm passing to the south of central Pennsylvania, however, things could certainly change between now and Saturday. Places like southeastern PA, northern NJ, New York City, and southern New England are likely to see the most snow out of this system. Here in State College we're expecting less snow, but the threat is still high enough for Relay for Life to move their activities inside the HUB for this weekend. Stay up to date with this system since a small shift in the track, depending on where the jet stream sets up, could move the snow further north or further south.

Areas where snow could fall on Saturday into Saturday night - Credit: AccuWeather

The final (hopefully) chance of snow comes on Monday night, where a mix of rain and snow, or maybe just snow, could fall. Lots of details still need to be ironed out with this disturbance, but we will continue to monitor it.

In terms of temperatures, our high temperatures for this time of the year should be in the mid-to-upper 50s and we'll be nowhere near that for the majority of the next seven days. Highs should only get into the upper 30s and lower 40s until next Thursday when a noticeable change is forecasted to occur. Temperatures will finally return to the upper 50s and maybe even reach 60 degrees. It will certainly feel like a heat wave compared to what we've been dealing with over the past month or so. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center demonstrates this on the map below with the orange colors finally over the eastern United States, indicating warmer temperatures for between April 12 and April 18. And, luckily, it looks like the warmth will stick around this time. Think warm thoughts!

CPC finally forecasting warmer temperatures beginning at the end of next week - Credit: Pivotal Weather

March is the New February

We had our taste of spring in February. Turns out Mother Nature was just teasing us.

Welcome back to winter. I don't think anyone is excited to see sub-freezing temperatures on a daily basis throughout all of March...not to mention four nor'easters. Meteorology professor Steve Seman can confirm the remarkable temperature trend that's happening so late in the winter season. 

#StateCollege just snapped a remarkable 26-day stretch with minimum temperatures < 32º. I can only find 3 longer streaks that ended this late in the season:

33 days in 1989 (2/23-3/27)
38 days in 1984 (2/26-4/3)
46 days in 1960 (2/12-3/28)#pawx

— Steve Seman (@SteveSeman) March 28, 2018

Graphic showing how much warmer March should be than February. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

Having a March that's colder than the preceding February is fairly uncommon for most of the northeastern United States. First, let's take a look at the numbers and the maps. March, on average, is between eight to ten degrees warmer than February usually is for most of Pennsylvania and New England. This temperature difference decreases as you move south, with places like Florida only seeing a two to four-degree increase from average February temperatures to average March temperatures. Most years this temperature difference is positive - that is, March is warmer than February. However, you occasionally get the years with an unseasonably mild February followed by an unseasonably cool March causing these temperature differences to be negative.

Temperature departures for the month of February in the northeast. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

For the northeastern United States, the entire month of February was between four and eight degrees above what it should have been for the month of February. This can be seen by the reds and oranges in the above graphic of departure from normal temperatures.

Temperature departures for the month of March so far for the Northeast. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

When you flip the calendar over to March, however, temperatures have been between two and eight degrees below average for a normal March, with especially colder temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic states. This can be seen with the darker greens, blues, and purples in the above graphic of departure from normal temperatures.

Temperature differences from February to March for the state of PA for 2018. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

When the temperature differences from February to March are placed throughout Pennsylvania, it's clear to see that instead of an eight to ten-degree positive increase in temperatures from February to March, we have had a three to a six-degree decrease in average temperatures from February to March. Places south of Pennsylvania, such as North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, have seen even more negative temperature differences. Some locations experienced a March that was seven or eight degrees colder than February was, which is pretty incredible.

Eastern U.S. temperature differences from February to March for 2018. Credit: Weather World & Dr. Nese

Even though this has happened the past two years - March was colder than February in 2017 for Pennsylvania as well - this is not a very common trend. It's only happened six times since 1900 for Pennsylvania: 1915, 1932, 1960, 1984, 2017, and now 2018. When you move further south, to Flordia for example, a colder March than February has happened eleven different years since 1900, making it less uncommon due to the lower temperature difference from February to March that usually happens down there. 

Why did this happen in two consecutive years for the first time since 1900? We don't really know. My first guess would be something to do with La Niña, which we've been under "mild" versions of for the past couple of years. La Niña winters are usually wetter and warmer for the eastern United States, which would have made a lot of sense for February - above normal temperatures and much more precipitation than usual. However, March 2018 broke this rule and the rule to be warmer than February. 

So, what should our high temperature be for this time of year? Right around 52 degrees here in State College for the end of March. We'll see temperatures around 52 degrees on Thursday through Saturday to end this week, which will feel like a heat wave compared to what we've been experiencing. 

But I've got bad news. The warmth will not stick around. Back to the mid-to-lower 40's for highs at the end of next week and possibly continuing throughout the first half of April. Spring is unfortunately still on the back burner, giving us a few teases but not sticking around for good yet.

Looking like April will start off colder than average. Credit: AccuWeather

4th March Nor'easter Slams the Northeast on the First Day of Spring

I describe the official Campus Weather Service snowfall map during my video Tuesday morning

Happy Spring! The season filled with blooming flowers, warmer temperatures, and....snow! Apparently, Mother Nature doesn't care when the vernal equinox is as the northeast got hammered with its 4th nor'easter of March over the past couple of days. Penn State received about 4-5 inches from the storm, but places just south of State College and towards the eastern half of Pennsylvania saw snow totals get close to a foot. Many people are getting sick of all this snow and just want some spring-like temperatures, so I'll let you know if we have any more snow in the forecast later in this blog post.

There were two main things that made this storm interesting to forecast for and monitor as it impacted the northeast. First, this storm was very hard to create a forecast for a few days out, especially for State College, which was looking like it would be right on the fringe of the snow. Models were all over the place with some models forecasting over a foot here in Happy Valley a few days before the storm and others barely giving us an inch.

A typical setup for a nor'easter - Credit: The Weather Channel

The previous nor'easters that have impacted the northeast United States have been much more of traditional setup for a nor'easter, where the system develops off the coast of the United States and then moves up the coast towards New England. However, this system made its way across the country, west to east, and then almost stalled in the mid-Atlantic where it received an injection of moisture from the south and then redeveloped off the coast of Delaware before it moved northeast, towards New England. This meant that Pennsylvania had the possibility of seeing snow from when the system was traversing across the country and even when it was stalled before it would move onto impact Southern New England.

The problem was the dry air just to the north of us. This dry air kept the snow to the south of us for the entirety of the day on Tuesday in State College, which left many meteorologists scrambling to adjust their snowfall forecast maps and lower the amounts that they were expecting. However, when many of us woke up on Wednesday morning, the snow had finally made it into Happy Valley and it was coming down at a moderate clip.

Graphic about different sun angles in different seasons - Credit: Home in the Earth.com

The second impressive thing about this storm was that for late-March it's usually difficult to see accumulations of any snow during the daytime, in cities especially. The spring sun angle is much higher in the sky than during the winter, which warms the ground and the lower atmosphere faster. In order to overcome this, it must snow at a heavier rate to accumulate during the daytime, which it did - with heavy snow coming down especially during the day on Wednesday reducing visibilities to less than a mile in some locations and creating treacherous travel conditions. For instance, some impressive 5-inch-per-hour snowfall rates were reported on Long Island with some gusty winds causing for quick snow accumulations and very poor travel conditions.

LOW VISIBILITY = DANGEROUS TRAVEL
Avoid travel if possible, especially in southern and southeastern parts of the state. Heavier snowfall leads to lower visibility and difficult travel conditions. Stay safe! #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/1a7Fh8x3r8

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) March 21, 2018

Many places, such as Philadelphia and New York, also saw the snow totals from this system break their old records for the most amount of snow that's fallen on this date in history. Washington D.C. doubled their yearly snow total after they picked up around 4 inches from this storm. The graphic below highlights just how rare having a big snowstorm is in the second half of March for New York City.

Graphic showing the rarity of large snow events late in March - Credit: AccuWeather

Two people have also died in accidents from trying to travel in this nor'easter and nearly 50,000 are without power due to this storm (for many this isn't the first time that they've lost power in the month of March). Over 4,000 flights were canceled on Wednesday and travel headaches could be seen from Massachusetts all the way down to Washington D.C.

What conditions are looking like for Thursday - Credit: AccuWeather

It will remain cold for the rest of this week with the freeze potential on Thursday morning from this storm as the places that saw some of the snow melt during the day on Wednesday will most likely see this refreeze overnight as black ice.

The Alberta clipper stom just missing PA to the south and west over the weekend - Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The good news is that the sun will be out by this weekend and we'll be missing out on the snow for an Alberta clipper system that will pass just to the south of Pennsylvania. By the time we get into early next week temperatures should begin to gradually increase and we could hit 50! by the time we get to Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees that this will stick around, but I'm sure many people are just happy to hear that there's no more snow in the forecast for the next 7 days. Stay warm!

March Madness of Nor'easters: Winter Isn't Going Away Easily

Three powerful nor'easters made for an insane March in the Northeast. pic.twitter.com/oAmSZiAWTC

— Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) March 14, 2018

Not one. Not two. But THREE outstanding nor'easters have struck the mid-Atlantic and the northeast over the past two weeks. Let's do a quick recap:

1. The first nor'easter impacted places from central Pennsylvania all the way out to Cape Cod on Friday, March 2. The most snow fell in the northeast corner of Pennsylvania (including the Poconos) and especially in the Catskills of New York. Additionally, travel was hindered for some students trying to head home for spring break on Friday afternoon and evening as well. The winds were very, very strong with this system causing coastal flooding, especially in Massachusetts, since the storm also coincided with a full moon making tides even higher than they normally are. The wind field of this storm was massive and mirrored Hurricane Sandy's wind map with places as far south as North Carolina feeling the wind gusts.

Tomorrows storm (left) vs Hurricane Sandy (right) – No, this will not be a Sandy repeat, but this shows you the unbelievable extent of the wind field and gusts we'll be dealing with. The entire east coast likely to feel effects. pic.twitter.com/v2vjsE8xS9

— WeatherOptics (@weatheroptics) March 1, 2018

2. The second nor'easter dumped plenty of snow from Philadelphia to all over New England on Wednesday, March 7. Some of the snowfall rates were insane with this storm system as it strengthed off the coast in the North Atlantic and bands of heavy snow set up in certain spots. One report from western Massachusetts claimed they had gotten 18 inches of snow in a mere 3 hours (6" per hour snowfall rates!!). Philadelphia also got a decent amount of snow with a few heavy bands of snow setting up in Eastern PA. Widespread power outages and travel delays/accidents were again caused by this storm system.

Still a long way to go with this storm. Several hours of heavy snow expected from Philly to New York City this afternoon and evening. #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/dMemBUPvMH

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) March 7, 2018

3. The third (and maybe not final) nor'easter of March caused everyone to get in on the snow - even all the way out in Cape Cod and along Long Island - due to the cold air that was already in place and further east track of the storm. This storm impacted millions of people in the Northeast on Tuesday, March 13. Some of the highest snow totals were from around Worcester, MA and in Western Massachusets, where over two feet of snow fell! Places in Eastern New England also saw blizzard conditions with some wind gusts as high as hurricane-force winds in some locations. Boston, MA, Worcester, MA, and Providence, RI all broke daily snowfall records which were previously set during the Blizzard of 1993. This was one of the nor'easters that achieved bombogenesis status, where there was at least a 27 millibar drop in pressure over 24 hours as it strengthened over the waters of the Atlantic. Since the center of low pressure of this system was further off the coast of New England, Pennsylvania didn't pick up as much snow as with the previous two nor'easters, with only the extreme eastern part of the state picking up an inch or two.

Snow totals across New England from the third, and most recent, nor'easter. Credit: National Weather Service

A high-resolution satellite image of the third nor'easter of March. Credit: Accuweather/NOAA 

Snow depths across the northeast after the trio of nor'easters. Some places have over 20 inches of snow on the ground. Credit: NOAA/NWS

Now maybe you're thinking, the first day of spring is less than a week away (March 20), so warmer temperatures and less snow has to be on the way, right? Well, another storm is on the horizon that might impact the northeast in the first half of next week. We will have to monitor it closely as we get closer to early next week, but it could miss the northeast to the south, bring us a wintry mix, or develop into another potent nor'easter. But regardless of what happens with this storm system, the cold temperatures are looking like they'll stick around until at least the end of March.

Both the 6-10 day outlook and the 8-14 day temperature outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center at the National Weather Service indicate temperatures to be below average - and they're very confident in this forecast (70% probability). So keep out that winter jacket for a few more weeks and blame the groundhog for these cold temperatures for seeing his shadow back in February!

CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook. Credit: NOAA

March Comes in Like a Lion: Strong Late-Week Nor'easter Incoming

Very strong winds and a mixture of snow and rain will blanket the northeast later this week. Credit: AccuWeather

It may feel as if spring has already arrived here in central Pennsylvania. We've experienced several days throughout the second half of February with temperatures over the 60-degree mark, even with a couple of record-setting days last week when we reached over 70 degrees! Shorts and t-shirts have been broken out and students are out playing frisbee and football on the HUB Lawn. Even with the copious amounts of rain throughout the second half of February (we actually broke our record for rainfall for the month of February here in State College), I'm sure many people have enjoyed the recent warmer temperatures after a frigid start to the winter. As seen in the graphic below, temperatures over the past seven days have been eight to twenty degrees above average throughout the northeast! So much for the groundhog's prediction of six more weeks of winter...

Temperatures have been well above average throughout the last 7 days of February. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

...but not so fast. Winter has not had its last laugh just yet. A strong nor'easter is expected to impact the northeast from Thursday through Saturday this week with strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain, and areas of heavy snow all expected. This will be a very complex system, to say the least.

For central Pennsylvania, where students will be having their last couple days of classes before spring break begins, this will be a mostly rain and wind event with a few snow showers possibly mixing in on Friday. The rain will move into our area around midday on Thursday and at some points throughout the afternoon and into the evening, it could be moderate to heavy rain. The rain will taper off by around midnight on Thursday night with winds then shifting to be out of the northwest, ushering in colder air and the possibility for a few snow showers throughout central and western Pennsylvania.

However, the impacts from this system will be much worse throughout New York state, across New England, and especially along the Atlantic coastline. When the center of low pressure moves off of the coast of New England, very strong winds will be blowing directly on-shore (especially in Eastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Southern Maine) pushing the ocean water on-shore and causing coastal flooding and beach erosion. As seen in the graphic below, wind gusts could reach up to 80 miles per hour in some locations due to the strengthening of this nor'easter off the coast. To make matters even worse, a full moon occurs on Thursday night which increases the height of the tides, further contributing to the coastal flooding that is bound to happen. These high winds will also most likely be to blame for many airport delays throughout the northeast over the next few days, as well as causing many power outages to occur.

Peak wind gust forecast for Thursday night through Friday night causing many impacts. Credit: Accuweather

Three high tides of concern from Fri late AM through Sat early PM in #Boston. Tide levels may reach those only exceeded by Winter Storm Grayson (Jan. 2018) and the Blizzard of '78. https://t.co/xCl2Y0Eon4 pic.twitter.com/gbYtzXVBxV

— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) February 28, 2018

Not only do we have to worry about the winds and the coastal flooding, but keeping track of where the snow will fall is also vitally important. Due to the intensity of this system, it will usher in enough cold air from Canada in order to change the rain over to heavy, wet snow in some places. The places that will see the most snow are the Catskills of New York as well as the western part of New York and far northeastern Pennsylvania. The majority of this snow will fall throughout the day on Friday, causing many traffic headaches for anyone traveling to the north or east of State College. 

AccuWeather's snowfall forecast - this will change depending on which model you wish to believe. Credit: AccuWeather

After this strong and complex system moves out of the area, temperatures are going to turn much cooler than they have been. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts temperatures to be around average to slightly below average as we move throughout the first half of March. This means temperatures sticking around the low to mid-40s for highs and mid to upper 20s for lows (a far cry from the 60s and 70s we saw in the second half of February).

Colder and more seasonable temperatures are expected to return as we move through the beginning of March. Credit: Pivotal Weather

If you want more details on this storm system and how the weekend is expected to be, check out my Centre County Report forecast video from Wednesday morning: 

We've Got a Very Interesting Situation on Our Hands...

As I was sitting in the Weather Center on the sixth floor of the Walker Building on Tuesday afternoon as I usually do, some intriguing and exciting news was being talked about. We might get a snowstorm this weekend. Yes, you heard that correctly. I know, it caught most of us meteorologists off guard too. All of a sudden the European model showed a large swath of snow moving over Pennsylvania Saturday evening and throughout Saturday night in its latest run. If you went back to the previous model run, nothing.

The European Model showing moderate snow over the Northeast throughout Saturday night. Credit: weather.us

Very strange, but interesting at the same time. As good meteorologists, we don't rely just on one model but instead we look at a variety of different models to ensure that there's some consensus. And sure enough, a few other models, like the Canadian and the North American Models, were showing this same area of snow moving its way through the Commonwealth and the Northeast Saturday night. However, others, such as the GFS, were predicting that the storm would track south of Pennsylvania, leaving us dry and clear for the weekend.

The GFS model showing the area of rain moving south of Pennsylvania and the Northeast. Credit: Tropical Tidbits

I think that this is incredible and a testament to the fact that our weather changes very rapidly. Having a situation that varies slightly at the beginning can drastically change the outcome. That's basically the entire concept of numerical weather prediction. Varying the initial conditions ever so slightly, but over time those small variations create large differences in the end result. When you average all of these varying results together you can get a pretty accurate forecast.

The fact of the matter is that this system practically came out of the blue. Forecasts were calling for a beautiful weekend filled with sunshine and no chance of precipitation as recently as Tuesday morning. Heck, I even flat out said it was going to be a gorgeous weekend in my video for the Campus Weather Service on Tuesday morning. Then as we went throughout the day on Tuesday, the possibility of getting snow on Saturday night was increasing by the hour. By the end of the day the National Weather Service and other general forecasting websites, such as Accuweather and The Weather Channel, were hinting at the possibility of some snow this weekend.

The Weather Channel's forecast for Saturday night for the Northeast. Credit: The Weather Channel

There are a few major reasons why it's so important to monitor this storm for this weekend. First, since it's THON Weekend here at Penn State, students and visitors will be traveling both from near and far to the Bryce Jordan Center throughout the weekend. Any accumulating snow will create a lot of headaches and traffic delays for everyone trying to make it to State College for this much anticipated weekend. Secondly, it's also President's Weekend which means that a lot of people will be traveling on the roads and highways throughout this weekend, especially in the Northeast to go skiing. If this system dumps some snow throughout the Northeast, people who were planning on traveling on Saturday night or Sunday morning might have a hard time doing so with snow covered roads and highways.

In other words, if this snowstorm actually happens, the timing could not have been worse and the impacts will surely be felt from Pennsylvania up to Maine. This is, unfortunately, one of those "wait and see" kind of storms, where we won't know the exact track and impacts from the storm until one or two days ahead of time.

AccuWeather's two scenarios of the track of the storm. Either way, this is not shaping up to be a blockbuster storm - accumulations should only be a few inches. Credit: AccuWeather

BONUS: You enjoying the warm temperatures? Good news. They're going to stick around for a little while. We will reach close to 60 degrees today and then we will have a couple of other chances to reach the 60-degree mark next week. However, keep your umbrellas and rain jackets handy because these mild temperatures are going to bring with them plenty of rain opportunities.

The Climate Prediction Center's temperature forecast for the middle to end of February. Credit: The Weather Channel

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's forecast is fairly confident that the entire eastern half of the country will experience above-average temperatures as we move through the next ten days. But what's next? Early long-range forecasts for the beginning of March are indicating a cooler than average start to the third month of the year, but we'll have to wait and see. This year might be shaping up to be a repeat of last winter: mild and wet February followed by a cold and snowy March.

Well That Was an Interesting Storm... My Opinion on Penn State's Decisions

There was a noticeable buzz in Weather Center on the sixth floor of the Walker Building Tuesday evening. Whether you want to call us weather weenies or sky nerds, we were getting excited about the winter storm that was going to impact the Northeast during the day on Wednesday. Many of us comparing five different weather models fascinated by what the snowfall rates could be, others trying to predict what the snow totals were going to be for State College, and some placing bets on if Penn State would cancel classes.

Updated Snow and Ice Forecast: A period of heavy snow followed by sleet and freezing rain is likely during the day tomorrow. Use caution if traveling as conditions will rapidly deteriorate early morning. @penn_state #PSUWeather pic.twitter.com/q033VRIlpM

— Campus Weather Service (@PSUWeather) February 6, 2018

In my opinion, this was the type of storm that's the hardest for meteorologists to predict. Winter weather is hard enough - everyone wants to know exactly how much snow they'll get. Let me tell you something. It's not that simple. If a heavier snow band happens to develop directly over a specific area, they'll probably see a localized accumulation that's much more than the surrounding areas.

And if you add warm air (that's above freezing) to the mix, like we had in this situation, a million other scenarios arise. Who's going to see a mixed precipitation? Will it be freezing rain or sleet (yes, there is a difference)? When will specific areas transition from snow to ice to rain? How will this dampen snow totals? It's a forecaster's nightmare (but, still kind of fun since I love the weather).

How different temperatures at different layers of the atmosphere impact the precipitation type. Credit: Mesonet

We were left looking at atmospheric soundings at different forecast hours to see where in the upper atmosphere and when it would become above freezing and possibly transition over to freezing rain or sleet at that time. We were comparing old model runs to newer model runs to see if they were trending warmer or colder and trying to see when that warm nose would poke through and deliver us some frozen precipitation. What we did know was that this was going to be a heavy hitter. Snowfall rates from 5am to 10am were looking to be at or over one inch per hour and with temperatures near 32 degrees, snowflakes were going to be rather large, helping the snow to pile up quickly. But then, after transitioning over to sleet/freezing rain/rain, it was appearing that the system might be moving out of our area by 1 or 2 pm.

Happy Snow Day, Penn State! pic.twitter.com/YdLRTP42z7

— Onward State (@OnwardState) February 7, 2018

I definitely would not have wanted to be the Penn State staff in this situation. Whether you decide to cancel classes or not, people would have disagreed with your decision (it's like a politician - you can never please everyone). Tuesday night they decided to cancel classes until 10am. That was a step in the right direction, but I also thought that that was when the heavy snow would be transitioning over to sleet, causing a massive travel headache. Then, Wednesday morning I woke up to the (wonderful) sight that classes were canceled until 5pm. I was honestly shocked that the university did this, but I happily went back to bed.

When I went out for lunch around 1pm, there were only about 3 inches of snow on the ground, a light freezing rain falling from the sky, and some minor slush on the sidewalks. I do have to give props to OPP - they were out clearing all the sidewalks, and doing a good job with them as well. We did switch back over to snow for a few flurries, but the overall precipitation was less than anticipated. I honestly think that Penn State should have just canceled classes until 12 or 1 pm (I guess hindsight is 20/20). Especially hearing all the stories on Tuesday of how rarely Penn State cancels classes (that it takes upwards of a foot or two of snow before they've canceled in the past), I was shocked to hear their actual decision. I wonder if the day last year when they didn't cancel classes and people were slipping on ice all day had an impact on their decision...

BONUS: AccuWeather just released their Spring 2018 preliminary forecast, which puts Pennsylvania and the entire Northeast in the category of chilly temperatures and the possibility of more mixed rain and snow events. This forecast of a slow transition to mild weather is not a welcome sight for many of you warm weather lovers, but we'll have to wait and see how it actually plays out over the next several months.

Credit: AccuWeather

Get Ready for Six More Weeks of Winter: Frigid February Ahead

Bundle up for a chilly month of February ahead of us. Even Punxsutawney Phil will probably agree, as he will most likely see his shadow on Friday morning "signaling" six more weeks of winter. But even without Phil's help, meteorologists are fairly confident that the month of February will be a cold one, and possibly even a snowy one.

The famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil in 2016 - Credit: NJ.com

After a roller coaster of temperatures to wrap up the first month of 2018, it appears that at the turn of the calendar to the shortest month of the year, colder than average temperatures will settle in and dominate the eastern portion of the country, possibly throughout the entire month. This weather pattern will also set up the jet stream in the right configuration to allow for some winter storms to impact the Northeast, maybe even as soon as this weekend.

We've been lured into somewhat of a false sense of security with a relatively mild second half of January. The map below shows that temperatures in the northeast ranged from two to six degrees above what they should be for this time of year from mid-January until now.

Temperature departures for the second half of January - Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

But all of this will change within the next couple of days as the jet stream will take a dive in the eastern half of the United States, ushering in cold, Arctic air and plunging temperatures to below average. The average high for State College for this time of year is 32 degrees with the average low being around 18 degrees. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is fairly confident that temperatures will be below average all the way into the middle of February, as illustrated by the maps below (blue indicates below average temperatures with the darker shades signifying a higher confidence in that forecast).

6-10 Day Temp. Forecast - Credit: Pivotal Weather

8-14 Day Temp. Forecast - Credit: Pivotal Weather

But how cold will it get? High temperatures in State College on Friday are going to struggle to hit twenty degrees with lows dropping into the teens most nights. But something else stands out in this new weather pattern: the potential for a big snowstorm (or two). While everyone is watching the Super Bowl indoors on Sunday night, snow may be falling outside across the Northeast. Both the American and European models suggest a large system developing over the weekend and moving over the Pennsylvania area throughout the afternoon and evening portions of Sunday. The exact track of the storm will determine who will receive rain, who will get snow, and who could see a wintry mix. The storm also isn't expected to get too intense and it will move rather quickly up the coast, preventing it from becoming a blockbuster Northeast snowstorm.

Widespread rain and snow will cover much of the Northeast Sunday night - Credit: The Weather Channel

No official forecasts are out for the potential snow totals, but my first estimate would be around two to four inches of snow in central Pennsylvania from this system. However, recent model runs have suggested that the center of the low-pressure will track closer to the coast meaning that the rain would spread further inland and dampen the snow totals. Keep updated with your weather forecasts as we get closer to Sunday to see if this storm will bring central Pennsylvania some snow. One thing does appear to be fairly certain though: if snow does fall on Sunday, it will stick around for a while as cold temperatures throughout February will limit any melting.

Comment below if you like the cold weather and increased chances of snow, or if you just want winter to be over and can't stand seeing any more snow or cold temperatures.

Can the Weather Just Decide What it Wants to Do?

Temperature graph for the month of January in State College, lighter lines are the average temperatures for this time of year. Credit: AccuWeather

Welcome to the Northeast. The weather can't seem to make up its mind over these past couple of weeks, fluctuating from being bitterly cold to being mild and above average. It's like mother nature got confused that we were still in winter. Just last week we got a few inches of snow on Tuesday, but it was gone by the weekend after warmer temperatures and rain washed it away. And I'm sure no one forgets the harsh cold temperatures that we experienced at the end of December and beginning of January (and, of course, the #BombCyclone). What causes these fluctuations in temperatures and keeps us all on our toes as to what we need to wear each day?

Strong low-pressure systems are the main culprit, each one having a warm front ahead of it that brings in a southerly flow and causes temperatures to rise well above average. But then the cold front hits, dropping temperatures like a rock and shifting winds to be out of the northwest. I'm sure many of us remember the drastic change in temperature over a few hours earlier this month on Friday, January 12. One hour it was above 60 degrees and then before you knew it the temperature was below freezing. As long as a high pressure is over us, temperatures will remain chilly or seasonable until the next low-pressure system comes through starting the cycle again.

Temperatures over the past 14 days showing the warming trend. Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

It should be noted that the past fourteen days of January have been around two degrees above average in the central Pennsylvania area, but much warmer than average in portions of New England (orange, yellow, and red signify above average temperatures in the map above). In case you were wondering, the average high temperature for this time of year in State College is around 35 degrees and the average low is at 19 degrees.

So these next couple of days will be fairly seasonable and average for this time of year before temperatures warm up again for the weekend into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This is, of course, accompanied by a weak cold front with some rain, which will drop out temperatures back down, a little further this time. The early portion of next week will be fairly chilly, with temperatures possibly not getting above freezing during a couple of those days. But don't worry, this cold snap will again be short lived as we get back up into the upper 40s by the end of the week and more rain possible. So fasten your seatbelts and get ready to ride the Northeast temperature roller coaster over these next couple of weeks.

The milder temperatures associated with the weak cold front that will impact PA over the weekend. Credit: Accuweather.

We should also keep in mind that we are in a La Niña winter, and forecasts at the beginning of this winter were for us to have slightly above average temperatures throughout the winter. The prolonged periods of cold earlier this winter have kept our winter average for temperature below average, but there is still plenty of time left for that to change.

Let's take a look at a longer range forecast of temperatures on the maps below issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. From January 30 to February 3, forecasters are fairly confident that temperatures will be above average. However, in the period from February 1-7, temperatures are forecasted to return to average, and some forecasters are saying that it may get to be below average during the early part of February with arctic air invading the Midweat and Northeast.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Credit: NOAA

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Credit: NOAA

Arctic air might make its way into the U.S. during the second week of February. Credit: AccuWeather.

However, these forecasts are a few weeks out and we should wait a few more days before confirming that these temperature trends will indeed happen. What we can be for sure is that it felt like April instead of January a few days ago, but now the winter jacket is needed once again over these past couple of days. Stay updated to see how these temperature patterns will actually play out and to see when more storms are on our way.

It looks more like April than January in PA with dark clouds and no snow on the ground. Credit: J.P. Tracey